I don't know if it has a name but the fallacy in question is applying an unconditional probability to a conditional situation.
The examples above are comical but this fallacy does have adverse effects in real life.
A famous example is Sally Clark, who was tried and convicted of murdering her infant sons. The prosecution claimed that the chance of Clark having two children die of Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS) was vanishingly small (1 in 73,000,000), making it beyond a reasonable doubt.
They arrived at that probability by multiplying the probability of a single SIDS death in affluent families (1 in 8500) by itself. But this calculation assumed that the two probabilities are independent when they're not.
A family that already experienced a SIDS death is likelier to have genetic or environmental factors that make SIDS occurrences more likely. Applying the probability of the general population to their case is a statistical error and a miscarriage of justice.
A good name for this fallacy could be the Killer Cow Fallacy, based on this iconic tumblr post
Genies can only grant wishes that are things that an ordinary person could do, just better and faster. The jinn are the creations of a divine being, and so they are part of the divine plan and cannot defy the natural order of things; a wish granted by a jinni can’t turn the day into night or the sea into yogurt, but if you wish for a temple to be built, a jinni will build it by hand, the way men do, and have it done in a day.
If you need a wish granted that defies the natural order you gotta catch a leprechaun, because no god was involved in their creation whatsoever. They just kinda showed up one day in the nineteenth century. The Aos Sí have no idea what their deal is
A guide on how to take care of your human friends, lover, and minions for vampires that are out of touch with humanity. (Disclaimer: this is not a hunting guide, this is for humans you intend to keep alive and healthy. See our companion book for hunting humans.)
Humans will not disintegrate in sunlight, and can be used for errands during the daytime. However their skin can still take damage on especially sunny days. Make sure they wear the proper protection cream if needed.
Humans can not be sustained on blood, and have much more varied diets than us. Most can forage for food themselves, but make sure to keep at least a little human food in your lair. (Note: human food can expire, canned foods, dried foods, and honey are recommended for long term storage)
Humans must bathe regularly to keep healthy and clean. Most can handle this themselves if given the proper facilities, but some might need reminders or persuasion if in a poor emotional state. Try to refrain from using hypnosis unless absolutely necessary to keep the humans trust.
Humans are much more delicate than us, and can not reliably survive long falls or extreme force. Refrain from doing anything too dangerous with your humans unless you’re a skilled necromancer.
Humans can only lose about 14% of their blood before their health declines. Make sure not to feed on them for too long or else they will require a transfusion. Space out your feedings to every few days and help them recover afterwards. (Note: it is recommended that you either feed on multiple humans or drain one that is not yours between feedings to keep yourself well feed)
Most humans do not react well to death and gore even if they understand the nature of vampires. Make sure to keep your humans out of the room when you drain someone and dispose of the leftovers, unless they have stated they are comfortable with it.
Humans are social creatures that cannot withstand decades of solitude like us. Even the most independent of humans will require a little bit of affirmation. Make sure to regularly converse with your humans and tell them how much you care about them if they seem unhappy. It is also encouraged to keep at least two humans to keep them from getting lonely.
Humans might also require physical affection depending on the nature of your relationship. A human you’re romantically involved with will usually respond very positively to cuddling and romantic affection. A human you’re friends with might also respond well to physical affection but make sure to learn what they’re comfortable with.
Humans can be easily seduced by the allure of vamprism. Ones you have only recently met might already offer themselves as potential blood dolls or fledglings. Make sure to throughly explain the ramifications of these decisions and state your boundaries, in order to prevent future emotional turmoil.
Humans do not have long lifespans, living to around 100 years if not killed. Prepare yourself for the emotional toll of losing a human you’re attached to, as not every human will agree to be eventually turned or resurrected as an undead creature. Respect their wishes on this in order to prevent drama or vendettas being formed against you.
Turning a human is a huge commitment you will need to make sure you’re prepared for. A fledgling will need a lot of guidance and reassurance once turned, and usually will go through some existential phases. Most won’t be ready to be independent until about a decade, but will usually keep in touch if they don’t stay with you. (See our Empty Coffin Syndrome book if you struggle with this phase)
Thank you for reading this excerpt, and congratulations on obtaining your human companion. Humans can improve the mental well-being of their vampiric companions and help them with their dark bidding if needed, even against their own kind. Plenty of humans will willingly betray their fellow man in return for vampiric companionship, and possibly make good potential fledglings. Our full book can be found at any cursed bookstore or dark library you can find, or that will find you.
I love that opera sits in this limbo where it’s extremely well-known but not really beyond a surface level recognition, so you get commercials for makeup or whatever to the tune of the I Hate Women So Much It’s Unreal aria
It is still sooooooo fucking funny that tumblr, the “fuck that old man” website, the villain apologist website, AND the paranormal boyfriend website read Dracula and went “Count Dracula sucks, we hate this dude.” Planetary alignment levels of unlikely.
all gaul is divided into three parts, of which the belgians inhabit the first, the aquitani inhabit the second, and those who are called celts in their own language and gauls in ours inhabit the third
umm OP neglects to mention that one small village of indomitable gauls still holds out against the invaders and life is not easy for the roman legionaries who garrison the fortified camps of totorum, aquarium, laudanum and compendium
Fun fact, italian translators always had really fun times with Asterix comics. The book was already filled to the brim with jokes and puns, and some were lost in translation, but some new one were born too! For example, the romans used to use the acronym SPQR (Senatus PopulsQue Romanum, the senate and the people of Rome, the source of its power). Italians translator used that in the comics, giving Obelix the catchphrase “Sono Pazzi Questi Romani” (Those romans be crazy"), SPQR for short
I HAVE NEVER BEEN THIS EFFICIENT FOR AN EARLY MORNING FLIGHT IN MY LIFE SO GUESS WHAT AMERICAN AIRLINES DID!
they canceled my morning flight
and rebooked me for an evening flight, which is fine, EXCEPT! now I’m going to have to stay overnight in Seattle. :(
which means I’m going to have to book a hotel in Sea-Tac extremely last minute! and call the airport shuttle to rebook for Saturday morning! argh.
anyway they did this literally at midnight so I got out of the shower and well. argh. now I’m definitely awake again. (I was definitely awake anyway because I usually go to bed between 3 and 4 am.)
I was so prepared to be the most efficient person at FSD and now I’m going to have to talk to a ticket agent so I can get my boarding passes. also I am still at home. :/
(jury is out on whether I will be staying with my cousin (who LITERALLY just moved into her new apartment yesterday), have to book a REALLY last minute expensive hotel room which to be fair does happen at airports all the time, or just spend twelve hours in Sea-Tac, which to be fair I’ve done before and there are worse airports to do it in.)
on the bright side I’m not going to have to suffer through ORD on this trip after all, since they rebooked me through DFW. (I firmly believe that ORD is the worst major airport in America but unfortunately it’s one of the ones that actually gets direct flights from FSD so I have to fly through it most of the time if I’m flying American.) I miss Old Reliable (ATL, which was my home airport for years).
![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
![[syndicated profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/feed.png){kind=small}
tawghasatumblr_feed
